Passage 2
For World Economy, the Worst of Recession Has Passed
For many nations, the worst of economic slump is over.
After a slow first half, the United States recovery has accelerate
D. Some economists are talking of a real 4 per cent o
Passage 2
For World Economy, the Worst of Recession Has Passed
For many nations, the worst of economic slump is over.
After a slow first half, the United States recovery has accelerate
D. Some economists are talking of a real 4 per cent or better growth rate this quarter. The monthly survey of members of the National Association of Purchasing Management found a “ healthy increase” in both manufacturing and the overall economy in November.
Business is picking up in Canada and Britain also. Canada should have around 2.7 per cent real growth this year. The new British budget, announced this week, assumes a real growth rate next year of 2.5 per cent.
But on the European continent, the situation is less happy. "The economic climate has deterio­rated further, albeit at a declining rate," a European Community report commented recently. "There are still few signs of a cyclical turning point being reached."
The MIT economist criticizes the French government for strangling the economy with high inter­est rates in order to keep the franc strong against the German deutsche mark. As a result, Dornbusch predicts, France will experience rising unemployment in 1993,1994 and 1995. And mass un­employment will worsen France's budget deficit and the prospect for tax cuts or more government spending to boost the economy.
The Japanese economy remains in trouble, with output falling two quarters in a row for the first time in decades. An appreciation of more than 15 per cent in real terms in the Yen over the past two years has hurt Japanese competitiveness, Dornbusch notes. The fiscal package to stimulate the econ­omy, to be implemented next April, "will help some but not much".
It is forecasting to be over 2 per cent for Canadian and British economic growth in this year.
A、正确
B、错误
【正确答案】：A
【名师解析】:题目中提到美国经济在经历了缓慢的上半年后，复苏加速，预计本季度实际增长率可能达到4%或更高。此外，加拿大和英国的经济也在回升，加拿大预计今年实际增长率约为2.7%，英国新预算预计明年实际增长率为2.5%。然而，欧洲大陆的情况则不太乐观，经济气候进一步恶化，尽管恶化速度在减缓，但目前还没有明显的经济周期转折点的迹象。法国政府因高利率政策导致经济增长受限，预计1993年至1995年将面临不断上升的失业率。日本的经济也面临问题，日元在过去两年实际升值超过15%，损害了日本的竞争力，尽管明年四月将实施财政刺激计划，但预计效果有限。 题目要求判断的是“对于世界经济而言，经济衰退最糟糕的时期已经过去”，根据文中所述，美国、加拿大和英国的经济正在复苏，尽管欧洲大陆和日本的情况仍然严峻，但整体而言，许多国家的最糟糕时期已经过去，因此选项A是正确的。
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