Passage 1
Analysis and forecast of China's export situation in 1998
In term of export policy environments in 1998, the reform of China's foreign trade mechanism required by the socialist market economy will progress with new changes in the administrative functions of the government. By means of support and preferential policies, the state will encourage the development of backbone industries that display strong competitiveness in intemational market hi-tech industries and capital-intensive industries. Policies that encourage exports will be further implemented. Under these premises, the state will adjust export policies in line with its macroeconomic development program New foreign trade policies are beginning to play active roles. They have raised tax rebates of textiles and will continue the effort to bring about a zero-rate terminally so as to reduce export costs.
The policy environments in 1998 will work to foster growth in exports. International and domestic markets are revealing the following favorable factors. First, importing countries are continuing to raise demand for Chinese products. Second, domestic production capacity has been upgraded although domestic investment and consumption are still limited. Third, inflation was kept under control in 1997. However the intemnational market has given rise to some negative impacts on China's exports. The financial crisis that shock South-east Asia in 1997 has caused many nations to devaluate their currencies. This has led to new level of competition within the region.The devaluation of the Yen has burt Chinese exports to Japan. A large share of the processing and assembling activities in China and around East Asia will be seriously affected by the currency devaluation. The financial turmoil has had a massive impact on many sectors of the economy.
Domestic consumption raised together with the upgrade of domestic production capacity.
A、正确
B、错误
【正确答案】：B
【名师解析】:根据题目内容，1998年中国的出口情况分析和预测指出，国家通过支持和优惠政策鼓励具有国际市场竞争力的骨干产业、高科技产业和资本密集型产业的发展。此外，为了降低出口成本，国家提高了纺织品的出口退税率，并计划逐步实现零税率。这些新的外贸政策开始发挥积极作用，有助于促进出口增长。
然而，国际市场也存在一些负面影响中国出口的因素。1997年东南亚金融危机导致许多国家货币贬值，这增加了区域内的竞争。特别是日元的贬值对中国对日本的出口造成了损害。此外，货币贬值严重影响了中国和东亚地区的加工和组装活动。金融动荡对经济的许多部门产生了巨大影响。
尽管如此，国内消费的增长和国内生产能力的升级为出口提供了有利因素。因此，尽管存在一些国际市场的负面影响，但根据题目描述的政策环境和市场情况，可以预见1998年中国的出口情况总体上是积极的。
题目答案给出的是B（错误），这与上述分析不符，因为根据题目内容，政策环境和市场因素总体上是支持出口增长的。因此，正确答案应该是A（正确）。
