Passage 2
Japan’s economy is in the most wrenching adjustment since the oil-price shock of the early 1970s. The optimists have predicted that the powerhouse economy is suffering only a temporary slowdown. Yet virtually every key indicator continues to deteriorate. The much-vaunted “soft landing” is cleaning not in the cards. Recovery is further away than many people imagine, and it will be slow and erratic when it does come.
Alarmed at the rapid asset-price inflation of the mid-1980s, bureaucrats intervened to head off a crash. Unfortunately, the economy didn’t cooperate. Asset prices tumbled precipitously, with the real estate and stock markets embarking on a steady slide that many believe has yet to hit bottom.
Japan dipped decidedly into recession as GDP fell 0.2％ in the second quarter of 1992, 0.4% in the third and 0.3% in the fourth. Industrial output shrank 6.1% last year. Now we’re starting to see bankruptcies by industrial and service companies. The recession is no longer confined to the bubble economy-it has entered the real economy.
Japanese companies do have an impressive track record of responding to crisis situations. They rebounded very quickly from the oil-price shock in 1973 and more recently offset the rising Yen by boosting productivity and shifting operations overseas.
This time around, however, they face a much harder and longer road to recovery. Recession is going to be very difficult for Japan.
The restructuring trend may itself exacerbate the problem. To try to shore up faltering profits, companies will slash capital investment and employee benefits. This in turn will further damage consumer confidence. Around 20% of Japan’s GNP comes from business investment, with a whopping 60% from consumer spending.
Consumer confidence has also been hurt by layoffs and cuts in overtime pay and bonuses. For a long time there have been more new job offers than there were seekers, but this has fallen recently. For most Japanese this is an extraordinary occurrence.
Statements:
49.Japanese industries were known to be remarkably flexible in adjusting to economic crisis. This time it’s going to be very difficult for them to emerge from recession.
A、True
B、False
【正确答案】：A
【名师解析】:根据题目内容，日本经济自1970年代初的石油价格冲击以来，正在经历最痛苦的调整。尽管乐观主义者预测经济只是暂时放缓，但几乎所有关键指标都在持续恶化，经济复苏比许多人想象的要遥远，且复苏过程将缓慢且不稳定。此外，日本公司在应对危机方面有着令人印象深刻的记录，它们在1973年的石油价格冲击后迅速反弹，并在日元升值时通过提高生产力和将业务转移到海外来抵消影响。
然而，这一次，日本公司面临的复苏之路将更加艰难和漫长。文章中提到，"这一次，他们将面临更加艰难和更长的复苏之路。" 这与声明49中提到的"日本工业在适应经济危机方面非常灵活，但这次它们将非常困难地从衰退中恢复过来"是一致的。因此，选项A（True）是正确的。
